Asteroid 2024 YR4: NASA Monitors Potential Earth Impact in 2032
NASA has revealed that an asteroid, 2024 YR4, now holds a 3.1% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, marking it as the most threatening space object ever recorded by modern forecasting. Despite this significant probability, experts emphasize there’s no cause for panic.
Astronomers believe the 130–300 feet-wide asteroid could cause city-level devastation, but not a global catastrophe. The James Webb Space Telescope will observe 2024 YR4 next month to refine trajectory predictions.
Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the Planetary Society, remains optimistic:
“The percentages might be unsettling, but we expect the probability to drop to zero as we gather more data.“
The asteroid, first detected on December 27, 2024, by Chile’s El Sauce Observatory, has fluctuating impact probabilities. NASA’s current estimate places the odds at one in 32—equivalent to guessing five coin tosses in a row.
International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) raised concerns when the probability surpassed 1% in January. The European Space Agency (ESA) places the risk slightly lower at 2.8%, but stresses this remains a rare and manageable event.
If 2024 YR4 were to impact Earth, it could reach speeds of 40,000 mph, leading to a midair explosion comparable to eight megatons of TNT—over 500 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb. The impact zone could span regions from the eastern Pacific and northern South America to Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia.
However, experts emphasize there’s ample time to act. NASA’s DART mission in 2022 proved that a spacecraft could successfully deflect an asteroid. Other strategies, including lasers, gravitational pulls, or nuclear options, are also under consideration.
Richard Moissl of ESA assures:
“This is not a crisis. It’s a rare event, but far from a planet killer.“
Global monitoring efforts continue as 2024 YR4 remains under close observation, with updates expected after the Webb Telescope’s analysis.