Global Challenges and Economic Risks
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana (BoG) has cautioned that the global economic environment is becoming increasingly uncertain, driven by trade tensions and geopolitical instability.
The warning follows the United States’ announcement of 25% tariffs on all imported cars, a move by President Donald Trump aimed at boosting domestic auto manufacturing. The tariffs, set to take effect on April 3, 2025, could escalate trade disputes, impacting global markets.
Speaking at the 123rd MPC press conference in Accra on March 28, 2025, BoG Governor Dr. Johnson Asiama expressed concern that these tariffs could negatively affect global GDP growth, particularly in the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies.
“The persistence of these external headwinds may spill over to the domestic economy through trade and financial channels, highlighting the need for policy to remain proactive,” he said.
Ghana’s Export Market Performance
On the domestic front, Dr. Asiama provided insights into Ghana’s major export commodities, noting mixed performance in the international market:
- Gold prices surged past $3,000 per fine ounce on March 14, 2025, driven by economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and a weakening U.S. dollar. In February 2025, gold prices averaged $2,897.3 per ounce, reflecting a 9.7% year-on-year growth.
- Crude oil prices saw a modest 2.4% increase, settling at an average of $74.95 per barrel.
- Cocoa prices declined by 8.5%, due to improved supply outlook for the 2024/25 season.
Banking Sector Shows Signs of Improvement
Despite global economic pressures, Ghana’s banking sector showed strong performance in early 2025:
- Total bank assets grew by 34.0% as of February 2025, compared to 12.1% growth in February 2024.
- Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) increased to 14.4% (from 13.6% in the same period last year), demonstrating improved financial stability.
- Non-Performing Loan (NPL) ratio declined to 22.6% (compared to 24.6% in February 2024). When excluding fully provisioned loss-category loans, the NPL ratio stood at 8.9%.
Dr. Asiama highlighted that these indicators reflect improvements in asset growth, liquidity, efficiency, and profitability in Ghana’s banking sector.
Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Outlook
Ghana’s fiscal deficit exceeded expectations in 2024, reaching 7.9% of GDP, significantly higher than the 3.8% target. However, early 2025 data suggests fiscal improvements, supported by the government’s commitment to consolidation in the 2025 budget.
The public debt ratio has also declined, aided by the government’s debt restructuring efforts.
Private Sector Credit Recovery
An encouraging development in 2025 is the resurgence of private sector credit growth:
- In February 2025, private sector credit grew by 26.9% annually, compared to 5.1% in February 2024.
- In real terms, credit growth was 3.1%, a significant improvement from the 14.7% decline recorded in February 2024.
Dr. Asiama emphasized that these positive trends signal renewed investor confidence and a recovery in private sector lending, which is critical for economic expansion.
Source: 3News