Illegal Mining, Climate Change, and Disease Blamed for Shortages.
Ghana and Ivory Coast, long considered the world’s cocoa powerhouses, are both facing catastrophic harvests this season, leading to expectations of shortages of cocoa beans, the raw material for chocolate. New York cocoa futures have more than doubled this year alone, reaching new record highs almost daily.
According to more than 20 farmers, experts, and industry insiders, a combination of factors including rampant illegal gold mining, climate change, sector mismanagement, and rapidly spreading disease are to blame for the crisis.
Ghana’s cocoa marketing board Cocobod estimates that 590,000 hectares (1.45 million acres) of plantations have been infected with swollen shoot, a virus that will ultimately kill them. Ghana currently has some 1.38 million hectares (3.41 million acres) of land under cocoa cultivation, including infected trees that are still producing cocoa.
Experts warn that West Africa’s cocoa supremacy may be coming to an end, opening the door for ascendant producers, particularly in Latin America. This shift could have long-lasting effects on consumer markets, with chocolate prices already increasing by more than 10 percent in the United States compared to a year ago.
Analysts predict that the impact of the disastrous crops in West Africa will only be fully felt by consumers later this year, with chocolate becoming a luxury item due to its higher cost.
“This crisis underscores the vulnerability of our global food system to shocks,” said an industry expert. “It’s a wake-up call for the entire cocoa industry to invest more in sustainability and resilience.”