Fitch Ratings has cautioned that Ghana will encounter significant liquidity pressures in the coming years despite substantial progress in restructuring its debt. The credit rating agency highlighted that Ghana’s interest rate revenue ratio will remain among the highest of its rated sovereigns, projected at 29% in 2025 and increasing to 30% in 2026.
Thomas Garreau, Associate Director for Europe, Middle East, and Africa Sovereign Ratings at Fitch, underscored the urgency of implementing drastic fiscal measures to address the ongoing challenges. “The interest rate revenue ratio, which we estimate at 30%, is almost twice the emerging markets rate of 16%, representing significant liquidity pressures,” Garreau noted.
Fitch also emphasized that Ghana’s fiscal consolidation efforts—amounting to a 4.6 percentage points primary fiscal adjustment from 2022 to 2024—have been substantial but insufficient to alleviate all concerns. The country’s liquidity struggles are anticipated to persist, requiring sustained efforts to stabilize the economy.
The ratings agency has indicated a potential upgrade for Ghana out of sovereign default by July 2025, contingent on the completion of its external debt restructuring by mid-2025. This progress is seen as a critical step toward addressing the nation’s economic vulnerabilities and restoring investor confidence.