In a move that is poised to have significant implications for Europe’s gasoline market, Nigeria has abolished fuel subsidies, resulting in a contraction of one of Europe’s primary gasoline destinations. This development presents challenges to European refiners, as the removal of subsidies in Nigeria has led to a decline in domestic demand and a decrease in the regional market for illicit fuel trade.
For Europe, which consistently produces more gasoline than it consumes, exports have been crucial to maintaining healthy profit margins for its refineries. However, the situation has been complicated by escalating competition from the Middle East, the United States, and Asia in recent years. The decline in European refining margins has been countered by geopolitical events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which led to fears of fuel shortages and subsequent profit boosts.
Despite these challenges, benchmark profit margins for gasoline in northwestern Europe have held steady at approximately $27 per barrel, according to data from Refinitiv Eikon. Factors supporting these margins include demand from North America, disruptions caused by low water levels, and local refinery outages.
Nonetheless, analysts warn that the aftermath of Nigeria’s policy change is likely to place additional pressure on European refiners. The winners in this scenario may be the newer Middle Eastern refineries, which are positioned to benefit from the shift in market dynamics.
Nigeria’s President, Bola Tinubu, terminated the costly fuel subsidy at the end of May, resulting in a 28% drop in petrol demand, as confirmed by official data. This decline in demand is evident in Nigeria’s onshore gasoline stocks, which have surged from an average of 613,000 tonnes between January and June to 960,000 tonnes.
Furthermore, the once-thriving black market for smuggled Nigerian fuel, which was prevalent in countries like Togo, Benin, and Cameroon, has collapsed following the subsidy removal. This has further contributed to decreased demand for shipments through Nigeria.
While the exact volume of smuggled fuel under the subsidy scheme is uncertain, estimates suggest that over a third of petrol from state oil firm NNPC’s depots might have been unlawfully sold abroad. With the subsidy gone, the incentive for smuggling has vanished.
Import data from Refinitiv Eikon reveals a significant drop of 56% in average monthly West African gasoline imports in the second quarter compared to the first. This decline is a result of the shrinking demand in the region. Refinitiv Lead Oil Analyst Raj Rajendran emphasizes, “The key point is demand from West Africa is drying up.”
Reflecting this trend, shipments from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub to West Africa have notably decreased. Loadings in June fell from 895,000 tonnes last year to 629,000 tonnes this year. Similarly, July loadings dropped to 627,000 tonnes from 1.5 million tonnes in the previous year.
Conversely, ARA exports to the United States have seen a rise, reaching 695,000 tonnes in July, up from 449,000 tonnes last year. However, these numbers are lower than the 791,000 tonnes recorded in 2021.
Gasoline stockpiles in the ARA hub have reached levels not seen since 2003, attributed in part to the inadequate compensation provided by U.S. exports for the diminished West African exports.
Nigeria, as a major crude oil producer in Africa, heavily depends on imports due to inadequate domestic refining capabilities. However, the country’s weakened currency and high inflation have made imports increasingly unsustainable.
The Dangote refinery, a long-awaited project aimed at addressing Nigeria’s supply shortfall, is not expected to achieve its full 650,000 barrel per day production until the second quarter of 2025, according to CITAC estimates. Analysts speculate that demand might not fully recover, suggesting a possible baseline decrease in demand as the market adjusts post-subsidy removal.
To fill the supply gap with more cost-effective options, Nigerian buyers are turning to alternative sources, particularly imports from the Middle East Gulf and Russia. Although still relatively modest, these alternative supplies are gaining traction due to their competitive pricing. According to Sparta Commodities gasoline market analyst Philip Jones-Lux, the Middle East Gulf’s fuel is about $35-$50 per tonne cheaper than ARA imports.
Russian gasoline exports to West Africa have also increased, with cumulative volumes reaching around 800,000 tonnes year-to-date. However, this growth is primarily attributed to the expansion of new Middle Eastern refineries into the West African market.
In conclusion, Nigeria’s decision to end fuel subsidies has had far-reaching consequences for Europe’s gasoline market and refiners. The resulting decrease in Nigerian demand and disruptions in the regional market have shifted dynamics and may pave the way for Middle Eastern refineries to gain prominence. As the market adjusts, the long-term impact on demand remains uncertain, leaving room for alternative suppliers to fill the gap.
Source : Graphic Business
